The Resource How fast can China grow? : the Middle Kingdom's prospects to 2030, by Jeannine Bailliu ... [et al.]

How fast can China grow? : the Middle Kingdom's prospects to 2030, by Jeannine Bailliu ... [et al.]

Label
How fast can China grow? : the Middle Kingdom's prospects to 2030
Title
How fast can China grow?
Title remainder
the Middle Kingdom's prospects to 2030
Statement of responsibility
by Jeannine Bailliu ... [et al.]
Contributor
Subject
Genre
Language
  • eng
  • fre
  • eng
Summary
Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years. Using a Cobb-Douglas production function, we decompose the growth of trend GDP into those of the capital stock, labour, human capital and total factor productivity (TFP) and then forecast trend output growth out to 2030 using a bottom-up approach based on forecasts that we build for each one of these factors. Our paper distinguishes itself from existing work in that we construct a forecast of Chinese TFP growth based on the aggregation of forecasts of its key determinants. Moreover, our analysis is based on a carefully constructed estimate of the Chinese productive capital stock and a measure of human capital - based on Chinese wage survey data - that better reflects the returns to education in China. Our results suggest that Chinese trend output growth will decelerate from around 7% currently to about 5% by 2030, and are consistent with a gradual rebalancing of the Chinese economy characterized by a decline in the investment rate
Member of
Cataloging source
CaOODSP
Government publication
federal national government publication
Illustrations
charts
Index
no index present
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • dictionaries
  • bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
  • Bailliu, Jeannine N
  • Canada
Series statement
  • Staff Working Paper,
  • Government of Canada Publications
Series volume
  • 2016-15
  • FB3-5/2016-15E-PDF
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Economic development
  • Economic forecasting
  • Productivity
Label
How fast can China grow? : the Middle Kingdom's prospects to 2030, by Jeannine Bailliu ... [et al.]
Link
Instantiates
Publication
Note
"April 2016."
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 30-34)
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 electronic text (v, 44 pages)
Form of item
online
Media category
electronic
Media MARC source
isbdmedia
Other physical details
fig., graphs, tables.
Publisher number
10050058
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
  • (CaOODSP)9.814963
  • (OOCEL)10050058
System details
Mode of access: World Wide Web
Type of computer file
Electronic monograph in PDF format.
Label
How fast can China grow? : the Middle Kingdom's prospects to 2030, by Jeannine Bailliu ... [et al.]
Link
Publication
Note
"April 2016."
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 30-34)
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 electronic text (v, 44 pages)
Form of item
online
Media category
electronic
Media MARC source
isbdmedia
Other physical details
fig., graphs, tables.
Publisher number
10050058
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
  • (CaOODSP)9.814963
  • (OOCEL)10050058
System details
Mode of access: World Wide Web
Type of computer file
Electronic monograph in PDF format.

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